Raghbir Singh Brar
Faridkot
September 15, 2026
Email:raghbirsinghbrar@gmail.com
While the AAP led by the Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann is making all-out efforts to repeat its government, the path ahead—should the Congress unite and the SAD-BJP form an alliance—is not so simple for it.
A Front-Runner Under Siege
Though it is still a front-runner by pleasing all sections of society by offering free power up to 600 units bimonthly, paying an honorarium of Rs 1,000 and Rs 1,500 to women, providing a regular 8-hour power supply to the farming sector, improving the supply of canal water, and further offering an honorarium of Rs 10,000 per month to sarpanches, yet it has been recently cornered by its opponents on its failure to break the backbone of drug smugglers, recent unscheduled power cuts, and the law-and-order situation in the state.
The party, which swept the state by winning 92 seats in 2022 while riding on an emotional wave and anti-incumbency sentiments, has failed to come up to the expectations of the common man. Its vote share fell to about 26 per cent in 2024 from nearly 42 per cent in 2022. It could win only 3 parliamentary seats in 2024. The AAP previously saw its vote share at 24 per cent in 2017, when all its dreams of forming the government crashed.The party, which taunted the rivals wh+o were unable to move without security, to open poultry farms instead of moving as politicians, has allegedly further enriched VVIP culture instead of its promise of doing away with it.The AAM aadmi, after winning the elections, was most VIP person like previous government’s representatives.All of a sudden,they turned khas aadmis.
Factionalism Drowning Congress
The factionalism in the state Congress is pushing it backward. The Congress leaders are fighting among themselves instead of raising public issues. There is allegedly a clash between its state president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, former Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi, and Leader of the Opposition (LOP) Partap Singh Bajwa.
If the party succeeds in uniting and Channi is announced as the Punjab CM face, it could give a tough fight to the AAP. The party had won 77 seats in 2017 with an above 38 per cent vote share, but was able to retain only 18 seats in 2022 with just a 23 per cent vote share. However, it recovered in 2024 during the parliamentary elections, winning 7 seats with its vote share rising to 26 per cent.
With the high command announcing that it would contest elections without naming any CM face, the party would further suffer.The voters want to ensure who is their CM first.
SAD Struggling to Survive: The Worst Time the Party Has Ever Faced
The SAD has allegedly lost its credibility. It is no longer seen as a Panthic or Punjabi party. Rather, the people see it more as a party of one family.
SAD could win only 3 seats in 2022, witnessing a considerable drop in vote share to about 18 per cent from the 25 per cent it held in 2017 when it won 15 seats. In 2024, its vote percentage further plummeted to about 13 per cent, and it could only win 1 seat.
Since 1996, the SAD could only form governments with an alliance with the BJP attracting the urban votes.The farmers agitation led to the break up and now Sukhbir Singh Badal is allegedly trying his best to reach out the BJP to form an alliance.But the BJP is non commital so far.
The BJP and Potential Alliances
In 2022, the saffron party got about 7 per cent of the votes and managed to improve it to 19 per cent, which is a big jump for it in 2024. If the BJP—though so far it remains in denial mode and claims it will contest all assembly seats alone—forms an alliance with SAD, the alliance could pose a serious challenge to the Congress and the ruling AAP. But BJP alone may not be able to make a remarkable achievement in Punjab.
The Vote Splitters
SAD (Waris Punjab De), formed last year, and Akali Dal (Punar Surjeet), formed by the dissidents of Sukhbir Singh Badal, president of the party and former Deputy Chief Minister, may mostly cut into the votes of SAD. Both would rely mostly on Sikh voters or formerly so-called Panthic votes, hitting SAD harder than other parties.
They, if they also form an alliance, may further make their presence felt, but may not be in a winning position on many seats. Notably, SAD (WPD) has two independent MPs: Amritpal Singh from Khadoor Sahib, who is currently in jail, and Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa from Faridkot.
“We have spoken to many voters on day to day basis during our campaigns, the voters are fed up with others and we shall make our presence felt in many seats,means win ,”said Rachpal Singh Sosan,halqa Incharge Kotkapura.
But there are still 5 months to go and most of trends would become clearer even days before the polling day.